In the high-stakes arena of the NBA, where championships are won and legacies built, some teams are boldly embracing failure as their path to future glory—strategically tanking to snag a superstar in the draft. It's a gamble that stirs passion and debate among fans and experts alike. But here's where it gets controversial: Is sacrificing a season (or more) for one player worth the risk, especially with lottery odds that can turn even bad luck into golden opportunities? And this is the part most people miss—the revamped NBA Draft lottery system has made tanking less of a surefire bet, yet the allure of the 2026 class remains irresistible.
Tanking, for those new to the concept, is when a team intentionally loses games to improve their chances of getting high draft picks. Under the updated lottery rules, teams starting in lower spots have seen their odds skyrocket, with the No. 10 and No. 11 seeds landing the top pick in each of the last two years. This shift makes deliberate underperformance a trickier game, but fortunately for the league's underdogs gearing up for the 2025-26 season, the upcoming 2026 NBA Draft boasts a powerhouse trio of prospects who could easily vie for the No. 1 overall spot. This isn't just hype; we're talking about a top-three group that might rival the legendary 2003 draft class.
Kansas standout Darryn Peterson, Duke's Cameron Boozer, and BYU's AJ Dybantsa each possess the talent to be serious contenders for that coveted first pick in a typical year. As the college season unfolds, we'll gain clearer insights into their performances and how they'll fare come draft day. But with the third pick potentially holding as much value as the No. 1 in an average draft, the temptation to tank has never been stronger. This is where opinions diverge sharply—some argue it's genius rebuilding, while others see it as shortsighted mismanagement that hurts fans and the league's competitiveness.
Entering the 2025-26 campaign, only a handful of teams are openly embracing this strategy, but injuries or subpar play could swiftly draw others into the fold. Let's dive into our ranking of the seven NBA squads most likely to chase the top pick in the 2026 draft race, based on their current rosters, prospects, and outlook.
- Sacramento Kings
The Kings appear poised for yet another rebuilding phase, though they haven't fully committed yet. Core player Domantas Sabonis remains the franchise cornerstone, supported by veterans Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, whose reunion after a disappointing stint in Chicago feels more like a comedy of errors than a championship blueprint. They brought in Dennis Schroder during the offseason to bolster their guard play, and while he's solid in international competitions, his impact in the NBA hasn't matched that flair. Young forward Keegan Murray faces a torn thumb ligament that could sideline him for at least the season's early weeks, adding to the uncertainty. I have high hopes for swing players like Malik Monk and Keon Ellis, but it's not clear if the Kings prioritize them as key pieces. LaVine shines as one of the game's premier sharpshooters, and Sabonis is a relentless force in the paint, yet this squad struggles to assemble cohesive units on both offense and defense. At least they hold their own draft pick this year. I wouldn't be surprised if Sabonis, LaVine, or both are traded by this time next season— a move that could accelerate their rebuild.
- Phoenix Suns … but they don't have their pick
The Suns are locked out of controlling their first-round picks until 2032, leaving the Memphis Grizzlies to benefit from their misfortunes after acquiring Phoenix's pick in the Desmond Bane trade. It could be a massive payoff. Star Devin Booker stays put, but the roster has been gutted following the ill-fated pursuits of Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. Booker's current supporting cast includes Dillon Brooks, Royce O’Neale, Mark Williams, and Jalen Green—a mix heavy on shooting guards and versatile bigs that doesn't mesh well on either end of the court. Generating efficient halfcourt sets without Booker seems improbable, and while their defense might hold its own, it won't dominate anyone. The Western Conference is stacked with talent, and Phoenix is lagging far behind. Their best shot at redemption lies in rookie Khaman Maluach blossoming into a star (I pegged him as the No. 3 prospect in last year's draft class), though that's unlikely to happen overnight. In hindsight, trading Booker this summer for future picks might have been wiser. Given the West's depth, this team leans more toward outright awfulness than mediocrity.
- New Orleans Pelicans … but they don't have their pick
Can a newly lean Zion Williamson finally stay injury-free? His health is crucial, or else the risky 2025 trade that sent their unprotected 2026 first-round pick to Atlanta for Derik Queen could become infamous. Queen, alongside seventh-overall pick Jeremiah Fears, represents the Pelicans' future, but their present hinges on Zion's court time. He logged just 30 games last season and 29 in 2022-23, though he did manage 70 in 2023-24, so full health isn't out of the question. Solid role players like elite defender Herb Jones and sharpshooter Trey Murphy III anchor the wings, with Jordan Poole driving in the backcourt, Saddiq Bey spacing the floor, and Kevon Looney providing veteran stability inside. Yves Missi might explode as a dynamic sophomore big, and Fears could flash speed on offense as a rookie. In the East, they could contend for playoffs, but in the tougher West, I'm skeptical without a breakout from Zion.
- Charlotte Hornets
I'm eager to root for the Hornets to soar like the Pistons did last year, but my optimism was misplaced entering the previous season, and I'm wary of repeating that error. Guard LaMelo Ball has missed 141 games across three years due to injuries, and until he proves durable—potentially curbing some reckless habits—he'll keep Charlotte mired near the bottom. Ball's talent is undeniable; if healthy, he could rank among the world's elite guards. They need forward Brandon Miller to rebound strongly from a injury-plagued sophomore campaign. Fourth-overall pick Kon Knueppel seems like a perfect fit alongside Ball and Miller, but his rookie impact remains uncertain. The frontcourt remains a major weak spot, lacking a true center, with Miles Bridges still in the mix and rookie Tidjane Salaun far from contributing. On the bright side, I admire rookie center Ryan Kalkbrenner. If Ball delivers an All-Star year and Miller progresses, they could sneak into the play-in. More realistically, expect another tank.
- Brooklyn Nets
The Nets outperformed expectations last season in their planned two-year tanking cycle, aiming high for Cooper Flagg but settling for the eighth pick, which they used on BYU's Egor Demin. With five first-rounders this year, including Demin, they'll get ample minutes as Brooklyn fully embraces tanking. Veterans like Michael Porter Jr., Cam Thomas, Terance Mann, and Nic Claxton are familiar names, but only Claxton might stick long-term. The focus shifts to youth, leading to inevitable losses despite coach Jordi Fernandez's innovative play-calling—he's one of the league's rising coaching talents. Without their 2027 pick (swap rights belong to Houston), they desperately need Boozer, Peterson, or Dybantsa, followed by aggressive free-agent spending on available cap space. This season promises pure simulation mode.
- Utah Jazz
The Jazz haven't hit the lottery jackpot since shipping Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert in the same offseason. They secured promising forward Ace Bailey at No. 5 last draft, but they're eyeing even bigger prizes now. Their young roster will get extended run, likely resulting in plenty of defeats in the competitive West. Lauri Markkanen probably won't last the year, though his lucrative deal might deter trades. He and center Walker Kessler form a decent front, but the rest are inexperienced specialists. Brice Sensabaugh will score, Isaiah Collier will speed up play and distribute, and Kyle Filipowski will roam as a versatile big, yet wins seem elusive. Bailey's growth is exciting after a solid preseason, aided by bright coach Will Hardy. I foresee a Markkanen deadline deal (perhaps to Detroit) and a full tank thereafter.
- Washington Wizards
The Wizards have amassed just 33 wins over two years, yet lack a true superstar among their budding prospects. Recent drafts added potential depth pieces, but they crave a lead guard or scorer to elevate everyone. Second-overall pick Alex Sarr, a agile 7-footer, is the long-term gem, hindered by weak interior finishes and no veteran playmaker to facilitate. Tre Johnson could challenge Cooper Flagg for Rookie of the Year with his lethal off-ball shooting, though his all-around game needs polishing. Veterans CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton mentor the group, but their influence is fading. Unless Bilal Coulibaly, Bub Carrington, Cam Whitmore, or Kyshawn George make giant strides, this squad will be steamrolled all year. No team craves a top-three pick more, and I predict they'll finish dead last.
Honorable mention: Sixers, Grizzlies, Celtics, Pacers, Bulls, Blazers, Spurs
What do you think—does the thrill of landing a franchise-altering talent justify the pain of tanking? Is this system fair to fans, or does it breed uneven competition? Share your thoughts in the comments; I'd love to hear where you stand on this heated debate!
